P R O B A B I L I T I E S
An Analysis of Probabilistic Reasoning in the Question of Shakespearean Authorship
————-
Based on four individual probabilities a (low) overall probability of 1: 10 to the power of 15
results that
Shakspere was identical with Shakespeare.
In order to estimate wether the hypothesis, that Shakspere [from Stratford] was not Shakespeare [of Hamlet]), is correct it is necessary to estimate out of various individual probabilities the overall probability by multiplying them [mathematically correct!].
Consider (as an example) four individual probabilities on the basis of a rather low, conservative estimate :
1) OVERLAP: Estimated probability that 2 poets, born in the same year [Marlowe/Shakspere] living both in London, did not timely overlap in their literary activity a single day 1:10000 **
2) EDUCATION: Estimated probability that the universal education, languages and world knowledge of Shakespeare can not have been taken from the grammar school education from Stratford: 1: 10000
3) ARISTOCRACY: Estimated probability that Shakespeare has not resided in circles of the court and aristocracy for a single day of his life. 1: 10000
4) WILL: Estimated probability that Shakespeare did not leave a “literary” legacy in his last will 1: 10000
Consider (as an example) four individual probabilities on the basis of a rather low, conservative estimate :
1) OVERLAP: Estimated probability that 2 poets, born in the same year [Marlowe/Shakspere] living both in London, did not timely overlap in their literary activity a single day 1:10000 **
2) EDUCATION: Estimated probability that the universal education, languages and world knowledge of Shakespeare can not have been taken from the grammar school education from Stratford: 1: 10000
3) ARISTOCRACY: Estimated probability that Shakespeare has not resided in circles of the court and aristocracy for a single day of his life. 1: 10000
4) WILL: Estimated probability that Shakespeare did not leave a “literary” legacy in his last will 1: 10000
Based on these four individual probabilities there is a results of a (very low) overall probability of 1: 10.000 000 000 000 000 (by a factor of 10 to the power of 15), that Shakspere was identical with Shakespeare. THUS
SHAKSPERE (Stratford) was by no means IDENTICAL with SHAKSPEARE (First Folio)
Thereby, however, it was not taken into account that one would have to integrate a hundred additional similar individual probabilities, or a multiple thereof , as shown in the book "The true Shakespeare"
[ ** this event would result 1 in 10000]
VIDEOS – Complete Video Archive:
OPEN —> Heading--> Home -->Videos -- Shorts -- Posts
->Popular
