Based on four individual probabilities a (low) overall probability of 1: 10 to the power of 15
results that Shakspere was identical with Shakespeare.
In order to estimate wether the hypothesis, that Shakspere [from Stratford] was not Shakespeare [of Hamlet]), is correct it is necessary to estimate out of various individual probabilities the overall probability by multiplying them [mathematically correct!].
Consider (as an example) four individual probabilities on the basis of a rather low, conservative estimate :
1) OVERLAP: Estimated probability that 2 poets, born in the same year [Marlowe/Shakspere] living both in London, did not timely overlap in their literary activity a single day 1:10000 **
2) EDUCATION: Estimated probability that the universal education, languages and world knowledge of Shakespeare can not have been taken from the grammar school education from Stratford: 1: 10000
3) ARISTOCRACY: Estimated probability that Shakespeare has not resided in circles of the court and aristocracy for a single day of his life. 1: 10000
4) WILL: Estimated probability that Shakespeare did not leave a “literary” legacy in his last will 1: 10000
Consider (as an example) four individual probabilities on the basis of a rather low, conservative estimate :
1) OVERLAP: Estimated probability that 2 poets, born in the same year [Marlowe/Shakspere] living both in London, did not timely overlap in their literary activity a single day 1:10000 **
2) EDUCATION: Estimated probability that the universal education, languages and world knowledge of Shakespeare can not have been taken from the grammar school education from Stratford: 1: 10000
3) ARISTOCRACY: Estimated probability that Shakespeare has not resided in circles of the court and aristocracy for a single day of his life. 1: 10000
4) WILL: Estimated probability that Shakespeare did not leave a “literary” legacy in his last will 1: 10000
Based on these four individual probabilities there is a results of a (very low) overall probability of 1: 10.000 000 000 000 000 (by a factor of 10 to the power of 15), that Shakspere was identical with Shakespeare. Thereby, however, it was not taken into account that one would have to integrate a hundred additional similar individual probabilities, or a multiple thereof , as shown in the book "The true Shakespeare"
